Archive for Statistics

Ten Good Reasons to Keep Your Home on the Market during Fall and Winter

Coldwell Banker Sold SignPeople often say that our real estate market (Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon and the rest of the Mid-Willamette Valley) is “bad” in fall and winter and “good” in spring and summer. The reality is, the market is the market and although there is some seasonality to it, there are benefits to being in the market this time of year.

  1. People that are looking for homes during the holidays are buyers, not lookers. If someone is out scouring the homes for sale, they need a place to live.
  2. Right now (not every year, but this year especially), interest rates are still at record lows, making this a good time to buy.
  3. There is hope (actually, strong expectations) for the first time home-buyer credit to be extended and even expanded (there is serious talk/proposals to help the “move-up” buyer—expect to hear more any day)
  4. Many people want to take advantage of the tax benefits of buying before the end of the year.
  5. There is less competition for your home due to less market inventory. Those that are waiting until after the end of the year to put their home on the market are not “out there”
  6. Homes (can) show better during the holidays because of the decorations (all things in moderation–watch out for too much of a good thing.)
  7. Buyers tend to have more time available to look at homes during the holidays.
  8. January is a month that many people will start new jobs so that will bring in buyers that are more serious.
  9. You may be able to sell and set up a delayed closing so you will not have to move until later.
  10. In a college town (like Corvallis), there is activity in anticipation of the new term (both winter and spring)

You may be concerned about the challenges of being on the market during the busy holiday season?  Once solution would be to limit the days/showing times to those that work for you.

My personal experience is that  I have had a good history of closings in late winter/early spring. Those transactions were generated during the fall/winter.  There are always transactions written Thanksgiving Weekend.

(Note:  this chart shows the year-to-date number of sales by month for residential propeties in Corvallis, Oregon, excluding condos and manufactured homes–click on the chart for a full size view)

comparison-of-number-of-sales-by-month_historic_-throug-sept-2009

How Recovery Will Come to America and Oregon

On Wednesday, October 14th, I attended a presentation titled: “How Recovery Will Come to America and Oregon”by Dr. Bill CReal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)onerly.  The focus of his talk was on the cause of the recession and the economic forecast for the next 18 months or so.  His presentation was well organized, down to earth and “plain language”.  A few of the key points were:

  • It is absurd to think that one person can change the jobs problem in a shorHousing Startst amount of time.
  • Housing starts drive the GDP (Gross Domestic Product1).  If this recession were truly a “housing problem” we would not have had a recession of this magnitude, nor would it have been global.
  • Demand for new housing tapered because construction of new homes exceeding demand.  At one point, the supply was 70 homes for every 100 people (people, not households); it should be at about 45.
  • Factors affecting housing demand:
  • Immigrant workers without jobs moving back to country of origin (migrate out)
  • Divorced couples staying in the same house become of economic factors (rather than creating new households)
  • Grown kids moving back to parent householdsVacancy Rates
  • There are too many vacant homes.  There is no immediate solution.  Vacancy rates will be slow to come down. The dip in “Owned” vacancy rate is attributable to first time home buyers moving from rentals to homes that they own.  This is pushing the problem from one sector of the market to another.Retail Sales
  • The public’s attitude drives the economy.  Fear creates an environment where there is no spending on discretionary items, which leads to a down turn on retail sales (“retail sales fell off a cliff”.)  The first component of the recovery is retail sales the second is money supply.  In the short run, this is difficult, but it also provides the seeds for recovery.  When people stop spending, they start saving.
  • 10% unemployment actually equals 90% employment.  The 90% that have jobs think that maybe they dodged the bullet; they have money in their pockets and create a pent-up demand environment.
  • The recession is over. The recovery is a process. It is like having fallen 9 feet down in a 10 foot hole, you have to climb out.consumer confidence
  • We are unlikely to see a big change in that (the non-spending) attitude — this recession has caused the “de-blingification” of America.
  • Change will happen in gradual shifts.
  • Challenges (factors that could limit economic growth) in the changing economy:
  • The financial stress of a growing economy
    1. Credit limitations
      1. Credit card companies cutting back (which was needed, but could have an impact anyway)
      2. The risk is main street business, small businesses especially, are not necessarily looking good for line of credit extensions (typically subject to annual review).  Bank examiners are afraid of looking bad, so are being very conservative.  Not necessarily taking into consideration that a small business surviving the bad economy is a good thing – looking strictly at profits, which may be minimal for the last year or so.
    2. Vendors may not be able to deliver
      1. Lack of ability to stock shelves—the current economy has created an environment where existing inventories have been reduced
      2. May be unable to gear up to meet demand
    3. Human resources – challenged to find staff to deliver in a change market
    4. Big companies may wait and hold off on large purchases; will be in “wait and see” mode before making decisions on spending.
  • It will be important to watch and track consumer trends to determine if they want to go upscale or take a more moderate approach.Money Supply
  • The biggest concern for the immediate future is to curb inflation.  This is a very contentious issue; the forecast is the Fed needs to slow the economy at the right time.  It is very likely that in March or April the Fed will hit the brakes hard.  Long-term interest rates are likely to climb even sooner.  If the Fed waits until later, it is likely that the inflationary period will be worse.
  • In the past, there have been economic downturns where Oregon was distinctly Oregonian.  This time it is a national recession. We have movement into the labor force affecting the unemployment rate, but it is actually, not that much worse if you look at jobs as a whole.  Oregon tends to be a large work force in manufacturing and construction, both of which were hard hit.  We have a high minimum wage, which affects job creation and retention, there are population shifts, where people are coming into the state, and start looking for work adding to the unemployment numbers.
  • What every business leader needs to think about are what are the challenges going to be?
  • Projected Interest RatesConsumers should prepare for tighter credit regulations, higher interest rates, and limited home price appreciation.  

1Gross domestic product (GDP) price index. Measures the prices paid for goods and services produced by the U.S. economy and is derived from the prices of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. It differs from the gross domestic purchases price index in that it ignores price changes in imports of goods and services and includes price changes in exports of goods and services.

Charts provided by Bill Conerly, data used in these charts were obtained from government and private agencies. Visit Bill Conerly’s Blog

Philomath, Oregon | Absorption Rates through September 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 10/13/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 10/13/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 1 1 0.17 6.00 55
$100,000 – $149,999 5 7 1.17 4.29 154
$150,000 – $199,999  11 6 1.00 11.00 113
$200,000 – $249,999 6 8 1.33 4.50 171
$250,000 – $299,999 5 3 0.50 10.00 301
$300,000 – $349,999 1 2 0.33 3.00 117
$350,000 – $399,999 7 1 0.17 42.00 254
$400,000 – $449,999 3 1 0.17 18.00 106
$450,000 – $499,999 2 * * * *
$500,000 – $599,999 1 * * * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * * * *
$700,000 + 1 1 0.17 5.88 14
43 30 11.63 143

Lebanon, Oregon | Absorption Rates through September 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 10/13/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 10/13/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 13 19 3.17 4.11 82
$100,000 – $149,999 54 40 6.67 8.10 131
$150,000 – $199,999  49 26 4.33 11.31 128
$200,000 – $249,999 20 11 1.83 10.91 279
$250,000 – $299,999 11 4 0.67 16.50 165
$300,000 – $349,999 6 * 0.00 * *
$350,000 – $399,999 2 * 0.00 * *
$400,000 – $449,999 1 * 0.00 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 2 * 0.00 * *
$500,000 – $599,999 * * 0.00 * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * 0.00 * *
$700,000 + * * 0.00 * *
  158 100   10.18 157

Corvallis, Oregon | Absorption Rates through September 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 10/13/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 10/13/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0.17 * *
$100,000 – $149,999 10 12 2.00 5.00 101
$150,000 – $199,999  35 38 6.33 5.53 106
$200,000 – $249,999 37 80 13.33 2.78 118
$250,000 – $299,999 44 54 9.00 4.89 154
$300,000 – $349,999 27 30 5.00 5.40 150
$350,000 – $399,999 27 12 2.00 13.50 146
$400,000 – $449,999 23 13 2.17 10.62 152
$450,000 – $499,999 11 2 0.33 33.00 126
$500,000 – $599,999 15 12 2.00 7.50 204
$600,000 – $699,999 11 2 0.33 33.00 108
$700,000 + 10 2 0.33 30.00 93
  250 258   13.75 133

Albany, Oregon | Absorption Rates through September 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 10/13/2009

 

Price Range Active Listings as of 10/13/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 14 9 1.50 9.33 148
$100,000 – $149,999 68 64 10.67 6.38 116
$150,000 – $199,999  121 111 18.50 6.54 130
$200,000 – $249,999 89 62 10.33 8.61 168
$250,000 – $299,999 47 32 5.33 8.81 148
$300,000 – $349,999 35 11 1.83 19.09 142
$350,000 – $399,999 21 4 0.67 31.50 107
$400,000 – $449,999 5 1 0.17 30.00 181
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0.17 6.00 78
$500,000 – $599,999 4 1 0.17 24.00 157
$600,000 – $699,999 2 1 0.17 12.00 337
$700,000 + 1 * 0.00 * *
  408 297   14.75 156

Monthly Statistics – August 2009

These are monthly statistics provided by the Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service. The statistics reflect the changes in number of sales, prices, new construction sales and more from the Willamette Valley real estate market.

Philomath, Oregon | Absorption Rates through August 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Information taken from WVMLS 9/8/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 9/8/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 1 2 0.33 * 84
$100,000 – $149,999 6 6 1.00 6.00 158
$150,000 – $199,999  12 5 0.83 14.40 119
$200,000 – $249,999 5 9 1.50 3.33 200
$250,000 – $299,999 6 2 0.33 18.00 244
$300,000 – $349,999 2 2 0.33 6.00 117
$350,000 – $399,999 7 1 0.17 42.00 254
$400,000 – $449,999 2 1 0.17 12.00 106
$450,000 – $499,999 1 * * * *
$500,000 – $599,999 2 * * * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * * * *
$700,000 + * 1 * * 14
44 29 14.53 143.94

Lebanon, Oregon | Absorption Rates through August 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Information taken from WVMLS 9/8/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 9/8/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 15 18 3.00 5.00 82
$100,000 – $149,999 51 32 5.33 9.56 128
$150,000 – $199,999  62 23 3.83 16.17 127
$200,000 – $249,999 25 9 1.50 16.67 207
$250,000 – $299,999 12 6 1.00 12.00 152
$300,000 – $349,999 4 * 0.00 * *
$350,000 – $399,999 2 * 0.00 * *
$400,000 – $449,999 1 * 0.00 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 3 * 0.00 * *
$500,000 – $599,999 * * 0.00 * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * 0.00 * *
$700,000 + * * 0.00 * *
175 88 11.88 139

Corvallis, Oregon | Absorption Rates Through August 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Information taken from WVMLS 9/8/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 9/8/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0.17 * 41
$100,000 – $149,999 9 13 2.17 4.15 101
$150,000 – $199,999  27 26 4.33 6.23 114
$200,000 – $249,999 47 69 11.50 4.09 132
$250,000 – $299,999 54 40 6.67 8.10 154
$300,000 – $349,999 26 27 4.50 5.78 160
$350,000 – $399,999 33 15 2.50 13.20 163
$400,000 – $449,999 20 12 2.00 10.00 154
$450,000 – $499,999 13 2 0.33 * 228
$500,000 – $599,999 16 10 1.67 9.60 227
$600,000 – $699,999 13 2 0.33 * 107
$700,000 + 8 1 0.17 * 77
  266 218   7.64 138.17
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