Corvallis, Oregon ranked 73rd in improving housing markets index.

According to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released 5/7/2012 Corvallis, Oregon is listed as one of the  housing markets showing measurable and sustained improvement.

The index takes into uses three independent montly data factors – employment growth (Census), house price growth (Freddie Mac) and single-family housing growth (Census) to identify the top improving markets.

Cities in the Northwest include:

• Bend, OR (newly added and ranked 72)
• Corvallis, OR (73)
• Portland, OR  (74)

View the full report: NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI)

History of home sales volume — Number of transaction in the Corvallis, Oregon

The Number of Sales in the Corvallis, Oregon residential real estate market is down approximately 36% from the peak number of transactions in 2005. But, it should be noted that 2011 showed an gain of 27 transactions.  It seems apparent that there is a slow but steady return to “normal” in terms of numbers of transactions. 

(click on graph for larger view)

It should be noted that the relative fewer number of sales has a larger influence on aveage sales price due to the limited statistical data pool available.

related post: Corvallis Oregon, Avereage Sales Price History

Source of data Willamette Valley Multiple Lising Service (WVMLS)

Average sales price history and comparison as of year end from 2000 through 2011.

Data includes residential type properties (including residential with acreage) for Corvallis, Oregon.

(click on graph for a larger view)

It is interesting to note that the Corvallis real estate market has held much better than most other markets through-out the country and even nearby communities in Oregon.

From the “peak” until the end of 2011 there is only about a 10.6% reduction in average sales price.  It should be noted that “averages” cannot be directly applied to individual properties as there are many factors that influence value and market-ablity.  Additionally, the average is also influenced by the number of sales in various price tiers (fewer sales in the upper price tiers and more sales in the lower price tiers will create a lower average).

Related Links: Corvallis Sales Volume, residential real estate sales history

Source of data Willamette Valley Multiple Lising Service (WVMLS)

Foreclosure numbers–A Comparison

We often hear the numbers and think how bad it is. What if you look at the opposite side?  How bad is it?

There are approximately 61,800,000 homeowners in the US

One third, that’s 33%, of US homeowners own their homes free and clear—that’s right, no mortgage.

Nationally, 3.4% of mortgages are in foreclosure (approximately 1,400,000). This percentage is only measured against homes with mortgages. That means that 96.6% (approximately 41,200,000) of homeowners with mortgages are not in foreclosure.

Of all the homeowners in the country 60,400,000 (or 97.7% of all homeowners) are not in foreclosure.

Of course, on a home-by-home, family-by-family basis, any foreclosure is a crisis. But, the numbers from a statistical “big picture” standpoint need perspective. 

Related Link: The Inventory Of Foreclosed Properties Has Begun To Shrink…

Note: A property moves into the foreclosure inventory when the mortgage servicer places the property into the foreclosure process after serious delinquency is reached and remains there until the foreclosure is completed.  Calculations assume that information provided by CoreLogic is accurate. Some variance is numbers results from rounding in calculations.

This is a great explanation and graphic concerning the states that are most impacted by seriously delinquent mortgages.¹

Tie this to the concept that the “normal level” of distressed housing inventory is under 5% (REALTOR® Magazine January/February 2012 “Clean Slate”)  one can see that there are specific areas of the country with ongoing issues, but that there is improvement.

“The inventory of foreclosed properties has begun to shrink, and the pace at which properties are entering foreclosure is slowing. While foreclosure filings are being curtailed by a variety of judicial and regulatory constraints, mortgage servicers are completing REO sales faster than they are completing foreclosures,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic. “This is the first time in a year that REO sales have outpaced completed foreclosures, and part of the reason for the decrease in the foreclosure inventory.”

According to our analysis, for 2011 completed foreclosures totaled 830,000 compared with 1.1 million in 2010. In December 2011 there was a month-over-month decrease in completed foreclosures to 55,000 from 57,000 in November 2011. The December 2011 completed foreclosures figure was also down from one year ago when it stood at 67,000. From the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.2 million completed foreclosures.

Nationally 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the foreclosure inventory as of December 2011. The foreclosure inventory is the stock of homes in the foreclosure process.

*A property moves into the foreclosure inventory when the mortgage servicer places the property into the foreclosure process after serious delinquency is reached and remains there until the foreclosure is completed. The foreclosure inventory is measured only against homes with an outstanding mortgage, rather than against all homes. Nationwide, roughly one-third of homeowners own their homes outright.

 ¹Reprinted with permission from TICOR Title, Corvallis, Cheryl Summers

According to a recent survey by Trulia¹ the American Dream of homeownership is alive and well.  

One interesting fact to me is that the number one concern of potential home buyers is the ability to save up a sufficient amount for a down payment. 

I find this  a bit ironic given the political trend to create an environment of even higher downpayments. As recently as this spring, regulatory agencies were working on rule making that would further increase the downpayment requirments. This was covered by The National Association of REALTORS^® (NAR) in REALTORS® Oppose High Down Payment Requirement for Qualified Residential Mortgage Exemption . 

The survey also covers the age demographics and ideal home sizes and locations.  Interesting information.  It’s worth a look.

 ¹ Trulia is a major site that provides information about real estate and homes for sale and rent

Coldwell Banker Releases its Annual Home Listing Survey Report

On Wednesday, June 15, 2011, Coldwell Banker released its annual survey which provides a “snapshot” of the average listing price of four-bedrooms two-bathroom homes that appeared on ColdwellBanker.com in a 6 month period, covering more than 2,300 North American Markets. This year’s report is more extensive than ever before and covers more markets.  As a Coldwell Banker agent, I appreciate it that Coldwel Banker provides excellent interactive tools for buyers and sellers making the information easily accessible and useful.  

Jim Gillespie, chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC said, “We’ve included nearly ten times more markets than ever before, which gives us unmatched real estate insight into thousands of North American cities…. We know that home buying remains a deeply personal lifestyle decision, and we believe that reports like this, along with trusted real estate agents, will help today’s buyers make smart decisions .”

 For the full report: Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report.

While visiting this page, take a look at the charts included in the press release or compare the price of your home to other markets by filling out the data at the lower half of the page, check out the infographic for a visual of the ten most affordable and ten most expensive markets or check out the ranking of your community in comparison to other communities in your state with the State Survey List.

The following are some “local” fact for the Corvallis and Albany, Oregon area and surrounding markets.

It’s very interesting to see a comparison between 2009 and 2010 figures for the number of foreclosures. Some communities have obviously been more impacted by job loss and down-turn than others.

I think this is a pretty good explaination of why the Corvallis market is a little more stable than some of the other markets and why it’s difficult for buyers coming from other regions of the country to understand our market. It also clearly demonstrates that there are some good buyer opportunites out there.

Note: total sales has approx. a margin of error due to the way sales data is aggregated and stored by third parties

Information provided by First American Title

Year End Wrap-up Statistics

Filled with real estate related statistics for the Mid–Willamette Valley with information provided by WVMLS.

The graph really tells the story. The winter/spring market of 2009 was difficult for sellers with high volumes of inventory and general instability in the economy. Late in 2009 and early 2010 there were fewer homes on the market because some sellers rented their properties, others simply chose to wait for better times, and other sellers made the appropriate adjustment to price and the market responded (those homes sold and were therefore absorbed). Although we continue to see a buyer’s market, it’s a more stable and balanced buyer’s market.

Absorption Rate: The amount of time that it would take the market to “absorb” the current inventory.

Analysis of absorption rates by price range or specific neighborhood is more meaningful.

Current rule of thumb defines:
A “normal market” as an inventory between 5 and 6 months
A “seller’s market” as an inventory of less than 5 months
A “buyer’s market” as an inventory of more than 7 months

Typically a buyer’s market is further defined by high inventory coupled with high interest rates (fewer are able to buy with excessive product on the market). The one anomaly that we have in current times is high inventory and low interest rates. Affordable interest rates have not created a sense of urgency for the public.

Average price per square foot has fallen in all communities through the Mid-Willamette Valley, although some areas have seen more significant adjustments. It would appear that the communities where there is a greater volume of distressed property sales (foreclosures and short sales) and excess inventory coupled with job loss, the change in the average price per square foot is more dramatic. Averages do not necessarily apply equally to individual properties. For an analysis of market value for your property, please contact me.

The problems with housing market data: What does it all really mean?

I recently came across this blog post about housing market data, headlines and statistics. Honestly, I couldn’t agree more to what has been presented in terms of the daily news and how data is manipulated. Average, median and other “statistics” have even less contextual meaning in a “small” community because of the relatively small sample size and nearly no market significance when compared to an individual property. 

The “quality” of the data has an impact.  Is the reporting accurate? Do the reported sale prices include concessions (things the seller gives up to make the sale happen)?  When a market has a limited data sample, the variances and inaccuracies have a larger impact.

Price per square foot has to be one of the worst benchmarks ever.  Homes are not produce.  They do not sell by the pound.  Bananas are produce… Square footage is only one factor in determining price: style, location, fit & finish all affect price (and therefore price per square foot), lot size has an impact.

Another less than meaningful statistic is the “average number of days on the market”.  There are too many factors influencing this number including: method of calculation for number of days; does a re-list count as new? does the days-on-market include the escrow period (it does here,  and as such it’s a variable controlled by the needs of the clients, certainly not the “market”).  There are plenty of other factors influencing how long a specific property is on the market (e.g. new construction listed prior to build out; poor location; unique style; condition of improvements, potential to obtain financing; price point…).

National statistics have very little meaning in a local market.  It’s a little like trying to use the average temperature in the U.S. and compare it to a specific location. Not meaningful, especially if you’re in the warmest or coldest location.  What’s more important is how robust is a local economy?  How is the job market? What are the supply and demand levels? 

As stated in the post, these kinds of statistics become more meaningful when compared to similar properties in similar neighborhoods.  

The bottom line?  The public needs to be very careful before they embrace any “news” with broad based statistical data.  It’s interesting, but of limited value in a given market. 

If you are interested in what’s happening in the Corvallis, Albany or other areas of the Mid-Willamette Valley, I’d be happy to help you figure out what the statistics mean to you.