Archive for Statistics

American Dream Survey–Fall 2011 (Trulia)

According to a recent survey by Trulia1 the American Dream of homeownership is alive and well.  

Trulia American Dream Survey – Fall 2011

View more presentations from Trulia

One interesting fact to me is that the number one concern of potential home buyers is the ability to save up a sufficient amount for a down payment. 

I find this  a bit ironic given the political trend to create an environment of even higher downpayments. As recently as this spring, regulatory agencies were working on rule making that would further increase the downpayment requirments. This was covered by The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) in REALTORS® Oppose High Down Payment Requirement for Qualified Residential Mortgage Exemption . 

The survey also covers the age demographics and ideal home sizes and locations.  Interesting information.  It’s worth a look.

 1 Trulia is a major site that provides information about real estate and homes for sale and rent

Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report

Coldwell Banker Listing SurveyColdwell Banker Releases its Annual Home Listing Survey Report

On Wednesday, June 15, 2011, Coldwell Banker released its annual survey which provides a “snapshot” of the average listing price of four-bedrooms two-bathroom homes that appeared on ColdwellBanker.com in a 6 month period, covering more than 2,300 North American Markets. This year’s report is more extensive than ever before and covers more markets.  As a Coldwell Banker agent, I appreciate it that Coldwel Banker provides excellent interactive tools for buyers and sellers making the information easily accessible and useful.  

Jim Gillespie, chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC said, “We’ve included nearly ten times more markets than ever before, which gives us unmatched real estate insight into thousands of North American cities…. We know that home buying remains a deeply personal lifestyle decision, and we believe that reports like this, along with trusted real estate agents, will help today’s buyers make smart decisions .”

 For the full report: Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report.

While visiting this page, take a look at the charts included in the press release or compare the price of your home to other markets by filling out the data at the lower half of the page, check out the infographic for a visual of the ten most affordable and ten most expensive markets or check out the ranking of your community in comparison to other communities in your state with the State Survey List.

Foreclosure Facts | The Local Story

The following are some “local” fact for the Corvallis and Albany, Oregon area and surrounding markets.

It’s very interesting to see a comparison between 2009 and 2010 figures for the number of foreclosures. Some communities have obviously been more impacted by job loss and down-turn than others.

I think this is a pretty good explaination of why the Corvallis market is a little more stable than some of the other markets and why it’s difficult for buyers coming from other regions of the country to understand our market. It also clearly demonstrates that there are some good buyer opportunites out there.

TOTALS            
               
Benton       2009   2010  
Total sales, incl. foreclosures (approx)      1004 – 1100        1109 – 1200
Total foreclosures   64   80  
Total foreclosures (Corvallis) 27   33  
Total foreclosures (Philomath) 9   17  
Total foreclosures (Monroe) 5   10  
Total foreclosures (North Albany) 15   17  
Total foreclosures (Other areas) 8   3  
               
               
Linn       2009   2010  
Total sales, incl. foreclosures (approx.)       1502 – 1700        1692 – 1900
Total foreclosures   330   453  
Total foreclosures (Albany)   135   173  
Total foreclosures (Lebanon) 87   139  
Total foreclosures (Sweet Home) 39   69  
Total foreclosures (Brownsville) 17   14  
Total foreclosures (Harrisburg) 20   22  
Total foreclosures (Other areas) 32   36  

Note: total sales has approx. a margin of error due to the way sales data is aggregated and stored by third parties

Information provided by First American Title

Year End Wrap-up Statistics!

Year End Wrap-up Statistics

Filled with real estate related statistics for the Mid–Willamette Valley with information provided by WVMLS.

 

The graph really tells the story. The winter/spring market of 2009 was difficult for sellers with high volumes of inventory and general instability in the economy. Late in 2009 and early 2010 there were fewer homes on the market because some sellers rented their properties, others simply chose to wait for better times, and other sellers made the appropriate adjustment to price and the market responded (those homes sold and were therefore absorbed). Although we continue to see a buyer’s market, it’s a more stable and balanced buyer’s market.

Absorption Rate: The amount of time that it would take the market to “absorb” the current inventory.

Analysis of absorption rates by price range or specific neighborhood is more meaningful.

Current rule of thumb defines:
A “normal market” as an inventory between 5 and 6 months
A “seller’s market” as an inventory of less than 5 months
A “buyer’s market” as an inventory of more than 7 months

Typically a buyer’s market is further defined by high inventory coupled with high interest rates (fewer are able to buy with excessive product on the market). The one anomaly that we have in current times is high inventory and low interest rates. Affordable interest rates have not created a sense of urgency for the public.

General opinion is that the lack of confidence in the market and general economic conditions is what is keeping the typical buyer away from the real estate market, as confidence builds, buyers are re-entering the market.

Average price per square foot has fallen in all communities through the Mid-Willamette Valley, although some areas have seen more significant adjustments. It would appear that the communities where there is a greater volume of distressed property sales (foreclosures and short sales) and excess inventory coupled with job loss, the change in the average price per square foot is more dramatic. Averages do not necessarily apply equally to individual properties. For an analysis of market value for your property, please contact me.

Statistics, the Media and Real Estate | The problems with housing market data: What does it all really mean?

The problems with housing market data: What does it all really mean?

I recently came across this blog post about housing market data, headlines and statistics. Honestly, I couldn’t agree more to what has been presented in terms of the daily news and how data is manipulated. Average, median and other “statistics” have even less contextual meaning in a “small” community because of the relatively small sample size and nearly no market significance when compared to an individual property. 

The “quality” of the data has an impact.  Is the reporting accurate? Do the reported sale prices include concessions (things the seller gives up to make the sale happen)?  When a market has a limited data sample, the variances and inaccuracies have a larger impact.

Price per square foot has to be one of the worst benchmarks ever.  Homes are not produce.  They do not sell by the pound.  Bananas are produce… Square footage is only one factor in determining price: style, location, fit & finish all affect price (and therefore price per square foot), lot size has an impact.

Another less than meaningful statistic is the “average number of days on the market”.  There are too many factors influencing this number including: method of calculation for number of days; does a re-list count as new? does the days-on-market include the escrow period (it does here,  and as such it’s a variable controlled by the needs of the clients, certainly not the “market”).  There are plenty of other factors influencing how long a specific property is on the market (e.g. new construction listed prior to build out; poor location; unique style; condition of improvements, potential to obtain financing; price point…).

National statistics have very little meaning in a local market.  It’s a little like trying to use the average temperature in the U.S. and compare it to a specific location. Not meaningful, especially if you’re in the warmest or coldest location.  What’s more important is how robust is a local economy?  How is the job market? What are the supply and demand levels? 

As stated in the post, these kinds of statistics become more meaningful when compared to similar properties in similar neighborhoods.  

The bottom line?  The public needs to be very careful before they embrace any “news” with broad based statistical data.  It’s interesting, but of limited value in a given market. 

If you are interested in what’s happening in the Corvallis, Albany or other areas of the Mid-Willamette Valley, I’d be happy to help you figure out what the statistics mean to you.

Sales Statistics for Corvallis Oregon Residential Real Estate

Corvallis Oregon Residential Sales Statistics as of November 30, 2009

The following sales statistics include comparisons of number of sales, average sales price and price range volume.  Data includes residential sales for Corvallis, OR (no condo and/or manufactured homes or acreage.)Corvallis Average Sales Price Nov 2009

The 2009 average sales price reflects a drop from the 2007 high. This shows a shift in sales volume from the higher sales price range to the lower-middle sales price range. It does not mean that the value/price of an individual property has dropped by a specific amount or percentage. When the sales volume (number of sales in a specific price range) shifts from one price point to another, there will be a change in the average.  

 Price Range Comparison by Year, Corvallis Oregon

_____________________________

 Number of closed transactions Corvallis YTD 11/2009

The numberof closed sales in the early part of 2009 was off significantly from prior years. This 2009 year has been unusual in that the seasonal adjustment typically seen has been lower than in prior years. Homebuyer credits and low interest rates have contributed to stronger sales in summer and fall and to the higher number of transaction in the lower price range. The number of closed transactions for 2009 compared to 2006 (January 1 through November 30) is down 37%; 2007 compared to 2009 is down 29.5%; 2008 compared to 2009 is down 11.5%. It should be noted that 2006 and 2009 were unusual years in opposite extremes. Somewhere in the middle a return to normal will appear. It appears that the market is returning to a more normal, balanced supply and demand status.

Note: Sales statistics are for the year-to-date period ending 11/30/09 and include Corvallis residential properties, no manufactured homes or condominiums, under one acreage. Data source Willamette Valley MLS. 

Philomath, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0 * 55
$100,000 – $149,999 4 9 2 3 181
$150,000 – $199,999  10 7 1 9 118
$200,000 – $249,999 9 8 1 7 198
$250,000 – $299,999 6 3 1 12 301
$300,000 – $349,999 3 2 0 9 77
$350,000 – $399,999 3 2 0 9 143
$400,000 – $449,999 1 2 0 3 93
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0 6 153
$500,000 – $599,999 * * * * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * * * *
$700,000 + 1 1 0 6 14
  38 36   7 133

Lebanon, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 11 20 3 3 84
$100,000 – $149,999 44 48 8 6 131
$150,000 – $199,999  43 31 5 8 155
$200,000 – $249,999 19 14 2 8 247
$250,000 – $299,999 14 2 0 42 249
$300,000 – $349,999 3 * 0 * *
$350,000 – $399,999 1 1 0 * 67
$400,000 – $449,999 * * 0 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 2 * 0 * *
$500,000 – $599,999 * * 0 * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * 0 * *
$700,000 + * * 0 * *
  137 116   13 156

Corvallis, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * * 0 * *
$100,000 – $149,999 8 8 1 6 100
$150,000 – $199,999  34 40 7 5 101
$200,000 – $249,999 45 84 14 3 112
$250,000 – $299,999 39 62 10 4 160
$300,000 – $349,999 21 33 6 4 136
$350,000 – $399,999 24 16 3 9 170
$400,000 – $449,999 20 10 2 12 149
$450,000 – $499,999 7 4 1 11 166
$500,000 – $599,999 17 10 2 10 195
$600,000 – $699,999 5 2 0 15 108
$700,000 + 7 3 1 14 198
  227 272   8 145

Albany, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 18 17 3 6 104
$100,000 – $149,999 60 73 12 5 116
$150,000 – $199,999  123 129 22 6 121
$200,000 – $249,999 83 63 11 8 165
$250,000 – $299,999 45 35 6 8 180
$300,000 – $349,999 28 10 2 17 116
$350,000 – $399,999 19 8 1 14 240
$400,000 – $449,999 3 * 0 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0 6 78
$500,000 – $599,999 3 1 0 18 157
$600,000 – $699,999 1 1 0 6 337
$700,000 + * * 0 * *
  384 338   9 161
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