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Statistics, the Media and Real Estate | The problems with housing market data: What does it all really mean?

The problems with housing market data: What does it all really mean?

I recently came across this blog post about housing market data, headlines and statistics. Honestly, I couldn’t agree more to what has been presented in terms of the daily news and how data is manipulated. Average, median and other “statistics” have even less contextual meaning in a “small” community because of the relatively small sample size and nearly no market significance when compared to an individual property. 

The “quality” of the data has an impact.  Is the reporting accurate? Do the reported sale prices include concessions (things the seller gives up to make the sale happen)?  When a market has a limited data sample, the variances and inaccuracies have a larger impact.

Price per square foot has to be one of the worst benchmarks ever.  Homes are not produce.  They do not sell by the pound.  Bananas are produce… Square footage is only one factor in determining price: style, location, fit & finish all affect price (and therefore price per square foot), lot size has an impact.

Another less than meaningful statistic is the “average number of days on the market”.  There are too many factors influencing this number including: method of calculation for number of days; does a re-list count as new? does the days-on-market include the escrow period (it does here,  and as such it’s a variable controlled by the needs of the clients, certainly not the “market”).  There are plenty of other factors influencing how long a specific property is on the market (e.g. new construction listed prior to build out; poor location; unique style; condition of improvements, potential to obtain financing; price point…).

National statistics have very little meaning in a local market.  It’s a little like trying to use the average temperature in the U.S. and compare it to a specific location. Not meaningful, especially if you’re in the warmest or coldest location.  What’s more important is how robust is a local economy?  How is the job market? What are the supply and demand levels? 

As stated in the post, these kinds of statistics become more meaningful when compared to similar properties in similar neighborhoods.  

The bottom line?  The public needs to be very careful before they embrace any “news” with broad based statistical data.  It’s interesting, but of limited value in a given market. 

If you are interested in what’s happening in the Corvallis, Albany or other areas of the Mid-Willamette Valley, I’d be happy to help you figure out what the statistics mean to you.

Sales Statistics for Corvallis Oregon Residential Real Estate

Corvallis Oregon Residential Sales Statistics as of November 30, 2009

The following sales statistics include comparisons of number of sales, average sales price and price range volume.  Data includes residential sales for Corvallis, OR (no condo and/or manufactured homes or acreage.)Corvallis Average Sales Price Nov 2009

The 2009 average sales price reflects a drop from the 2007 high. This shows a shift in sales volume from the higher sales price range to the lower-middle sales price range. It does not mean that the value/price of an individual property has dropped by a specific amount or percentage. When the sales volume (number of sales in a specific price range) shifts from one price point to another, there will be a change in the average.  

 Price Range Comparison by Year, Corvallis Oregon

_____________________________

 Number of closed transactions Corvallis YTD 11/2009

The numberof closed sales in the early part of 2009 was off significantly from prior years. This 2009 year has been unusual in that the seasonal adjustment typically seen has been lower than in prior years. Homebuyer credits and low interest rates have contributed to stronger sales in summer and fall and to the higher number of transaction in the lower price range. The number of closed transactions for 2009 compared to 2006 (January 1 through November 30) is down 37%; 2007 compared to 2009 is down 29.5%; 2008 compared to 2009 is down 11.5%. It should be noted that 2006 and 2009 were unusual years in opposite extremes. Somewhere in the middle a return to normal will appear. It appears that the market is returning to a more normal, balanced supply and demand status.

Note: Sales statistics are for the year-to-date period ending 11/30/09 and include Corvallis residential properties, no manufactured homes or condominiums, under one acreage. Data source Willamette Valley MLS. 

Philomath, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0 * 55
$100,000 – $149,999 4 9 2 3 181
$150,000 – $199,999  10 7 1 9 118
$200,000 – $249,999 9 8 1 7 198
$250,000 – $299,999 6 3 1 12 301
$300,000 – $349,999 3 2 0 9 77
$350,000 – $399,999 3 2 0 9 143
$400,000 – $449,999 1 2 0 3 93
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0 6 153
$500,000 – $599,999 * * * * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * * * *
$700,000 + 1 1 0 6 14
  38 36   7 133

Lebanon, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 11 20 3 3 84
$100,000 – $149,999 44 48 8 6 131
$150,000 – $199,999  43 31 5 8 155
$200,000 – $249,999 19 14 2 8 247
$250,000 – $299,999 14 2 0 42 249
$300,000 – $349,999 3 * 0 * *
$350,000 – $399,999 1 1 0 * 67
$400,000 – $449,999 * * 0 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 2 * 0 * *
$500,000 – $599,999 * * 0 * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * 0 * *
$700,000 + * * 0 * *
  137 116   13 156

Corvallis, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * * 0 * *
$100,000 – $149,999 8 8 1 6 100
$150,000 – $199,999  34 40 7 5 101
$200,000 – $249,999 45 84 14 3 112
$250,000 – $299,999 39 62 10 4 160
$300,000 – $349,999 21 33 6 4 136
$350,000 – $399,999 24 16 3 9 170
$400,000 – $449,999 20 10 2 12 149
$450,000 – $499,999 7 4 1 11 166
$500,000 – $599,999 17 10 2 10 195
$600,000 – $699,999 5 2 0 15 108
$700,000 + 7 3 1 14 198
  227 272   8 145

Albany, Oregon | Absorption Rates through November 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 12/9/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 12/9/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 18 17 3 6 104
$100,000 – $149,999 60 73 12 5 116
$150,000 – $199,999  123 129 22 6 121
$200,000 – $249,999 83 63 11 8 165
$250,000 – $299,999 45 35 6 8 180
$300,000 – $349,999 28 10 2 17 116
$350,000 – $399,999 19 8 1 14 240
$400,000 – $449,999 3 * 0 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0 6 78
$500,000 – $599,999 3 1 0 18 157
$600,000 – $699,999 1 1 0 6 337
$700,000 + * * 0 * *
  384 338   9 161

Philomath, Oregon | Absorption Rates through October 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 11/10/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 11/10/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0 * 55
$100,000 – $149,999 4 8 1 3 177
$150,000 – $199,999  9 5 1 11 122
$200,000 – $249,999 9 8 1 7 198
$250,000 – $299,999 5 3 1 10 301
$300,000 – $349,999 3 2 0 9 117
$350,000 – $399,999 3 2 0 9 143
$400,000 – $449,999 2 1 0 12 106
$450,000 – $499,999 1 * * * *
$500,000 – $599,999 1 * * * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * * * *
$700,000 + 1 1 0 6 14
  38 31   8 137

Lebanon, Oregon | Absorption Rates through October 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 11/10/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 11/10/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 10 22 3.67 2.73 84
$100,000 – $149,999 41 45 7.50 5.47 126
$150,000 – $199,999  43 28 4.67 9.21 147
$200,000 – $249,999 18 12 2.00 9.00 249
$250,000 – $299,999 12 4 0.67 18.00 248
$300,000 – $349,999 3 * 0.00 * *
$350,000 – $399,999 * 1 0.17 * 67
$400,000 – $449,999 1 * 0.00 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 2 * 0.00 * *
$500,000 – $599,999 * * 0.00 * *
$600,000 – $699,999 * * 0.00 * *
$700,000 + * * 0.00 * *
  130 112   8.88 154

Corvallis, Oregon | Absorption Rates through October 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 11/10/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 11/10/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Mos. Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 * 1 0.17 * 41
$100,000 – $149,999 7 11 1.83 3.82 105
$150,000 – $199,999  29 38 6.33 4.58 99
$200,000 – $249,999 46 83 13.83 3.33 115
$250,000 – $299,999 46 56 9.33 4.93 152
$300,000 – $349,999 24 32 5.33 4.50 135
$350,000 – $399,999 23 12 2.00 11.50 151
$400,000 – $449,999 23 13 2.17 10.62 158
$450,000 – $499,999 8 3 0.50 16.00 151
$500,000 – $599,999 13 11 1.83 7.09 218
$600,000 – $699,999 7 2 0.33 21.00 108
$700,000 + 9 2 0.33 27.00 93
  235 264   10.40 127

Albany, Oregon | Absorption Rates through October 2009

Includes all single-family residential properties on less than two acres
as reported by WVMLS.
Data taken from WVMLS 11/10/2009

Price Range Active Listings as of 11/10/2009 Sold Listings Last 6 Months Average Sold Per Month Months of Inventory Av. Days on Market Solds
$0 – $99,999 19 11 1.83 10.36 121
$100,000 – $149,999 59 65 10.83 5.45 117
$150,000 – $199,999  110 115 19.17 5.74 123
$200,000 – $249,999 87 62 10.33 8.42 164
$250,000 – $299,999 42 31 5.17 8.13 168
$300,000 – $349,999 29 10 1.67 17.40 165
$350,000 – $399,999 18 6 1.00 18.00 215
$400,000 – $449,999 3 * 0.00 * *
$450,000 – $499,999 1 1 0.17 6.00 78
$500,000 – $599,999 3 1 0.17 18.00 157
$600,000 – $699,999 2 1 0.17 12.00 337
$700,000 + 1 * 0.00 * *
374 303 10.95 165

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