Corvallis, Oregon Housing Market Ranked 9th Most Over Valued – Is that a Fair Assessment?

Recently, I answered a posted question on Trulia.com, which related to a CNNMoney.com post that ranks Corvallis, Oregon as the 9th most overvalued housing market.  I’ve been asked about the study in person a few times… here’s what I think.

The study was done by IHS Global Insight and PNC Financial Services. The terminology used are “overvalued” and “undervalued”.  The study ranks Corvallis, Oregon as  the 10th  most “overvalued” market  in the study (there were only 399 markets included in the study—one has to wonder about the sample size) .

On one hand I’m completely aghast at the use of the terminology.  The definition of market value is “a price at which buyers and sellers are willing to do business” (Webster’s ninth new Collegiate Dictionary).  So, by the very definition of market value, how can a market be “over” or “under” valued? The published article is unclear about what the “percent” relates to (percent of what?).  Is it the number of homes on the market that are “over/under valued?” Or is it the total number of homes in the community (if so, where did they get that “value” from)?  Is it a comparison of number of home on the market or sold in relation to the median house price?  None of the data I reviewed tells you what any of it really means.  I searched the web in general  and the web site for both PNC Financial Services and IHS Global Insights could not locate to the actual study.

With only a surface evaluation at my disposal, I have to say, I am more than a little skeptical about comparisons or rankings of such diverse cities.  Seriously, Corvallis is in a list with Honolulu, Hawaii; Bangor Maine;  and Bakersfield, California? Not much commonality. Perhaps it would make more sense to compare college towns to college towns (See the Coldwell Banker  Home Price Comparison Indexes — there’s one  index for College Towns and one for select markets) or towns with similar features and sizes.

The study says it is based on select data: “These judgments are determined by comparing median home prices, local interest rates, population densities and income, plus historical premiums or discounts that areas have exhibited over time.”

 If you want to look at the “premiums” that Corvallis has to offer and length of time for the “history”, I have to say, Corvallis is not the same place it was 20 years ago. What are the “historical premiums or discounts”, and who is deciding which of these factors is significant. The term “overvalued” may be relative to who is doing the shopping and what the current “premium” list is…

How long is the history? It does not appear that there is any consideration for supply and demand; and important factor in a community like Corvallis.

Interest rates are very much based on national pricing (at least as long as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still around) not locally set, so the rate climate really has a limited effect. 

Corvallis is a very small market. Median home prices fluctuate (and drop) when the upper end of the market is slow and/or when there is limited inventory in the entry level available. For a significant portion of 2009, entry and mid level housing was more active than any other price point because of low interest rates, inventory and tax incentives. When more homes sell in the entry and median levels, the median and/or average is bound to move down. It is simply how the math works (Median is the center point between the highest high and the lowest low, more weight at the lower end, drives the median down.) Based on what I know about individual home sales and the market in which I work, I am not clear on how the median can be a valid statistical point in our market. The sample is simply too small.

The variance in the study between 2006 and 2010 for Corvallis is under 5%–many of the communities on either end of the scale exhibit much wider variances between  the 2006 study and the 2010 study. That (almost 5%) is not much of a difference when you are comparing the same figure to other communities. To me it is an indication of a comparatively stable market (relative to the overall economic climate). Other communities, especially those where the bottom dropped out, show wider variations. The communities that are now rated extremely undervalued took big employment hits, have high foreclosure rates, did not control growth and/or a combination of those factors.  

Do not get me wrong. I do not think that any community that is immune to the impact of the current economy. However, I do not think that we are in for the fall that one might derive from this report. Jobs will determine that.

It was not until this last housing cycle that homes were considered short-term investments. In the past, most investors were looking at purchasing investment properties on the basis of cash-flow.  Appreciation was a bonus. Flipping was done only by the most experienced investors and with appropriate types of financial backing.

The last paragraph of the article is the most significant. “The bottom line, at least for a few years, is that the average buyer should forget about home purchases as investments. The good news is that, long-term, their home values should appreciate.” That sounds more like a return to normal to me.

I’d like to know what you think?  Please post your comment or question.

How Would You Spend Your Tax Credit?

COLDWELL BANKER REAL ESTATE STUDY FINDS CONSUMERS’ ANTICIPATED ‘SMART SPENDING’ OF HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT WILL AID ECONOMIC RECOVERY

83 Percent of Current Homeowners Surveyed Say They Would Spend Tax Credit on Repaying Existing Debts, Home Improvements, Savings/Investments and Household Expenses

Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC today announced the findings from a new survey that looked at how the recently expanded federal homebuyer tax credit, which opened up the credit to existing homeowners, might impact the economy.  Of the more than 1,000 homeowners surveyed, 83 percent responded that if they were to purchase a home and qualify for the tax credit, they would engage in “smart spending” or put the money toward paying off existing debts, home improvements, savings/investments, or everyday household expenses.  Only 6 percent of respondents indicated that they would spend the money on what are commonly referred to as luxury items such as a vacation or a shopping spree.

According to the survey, the top way homeowners would spend their $6,500 tax credit in a “smart” way would be to pay off debts (34 percent), followed closely by making home improvements (29 percent) and putting it into savings and investments (28 percent).

In addition, Coldwell Banker Real Estate found that 20 percent of homeowners indicated they were more likely to consider purchasing a home than they were six months ago, after learning about the $6,500 federal tax credit. The tax credit, which previously only was for first-time homebuyers, is now available to existing homeowners who sign a binding contract before April 30, 2010 and close on the purchase of a home before June 30, 2010. To learn more about the details of the expanded homebuyer tax credit, go to www.coldwellbanker.com

If you’re considering purchasing a home in Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon or Philomath (and surrounding areas of the mid-Willamette Valley); I’d like to help you meet your goals.  I work with buyers and sellers at all price levels. Please get in touch and we can get started today.

Other resources for information about the tax credit:

National Association of Realtors frequently asked questions about the tax credit

I.R.S. information abut the tax credit

Richard Smith checks in with CNBC regarding the current condition of the real estate market, projections about the economy and mortgage interest rates, the condition of FHA (Federal Housing Administration). A very insightful and calm discussion about the anticipated response to the tax credit extension/expansion.

Richard Smith is CEO of Realogy (parent to Coldwell Banker Corporation and others) and the world’s largest brokerage operator.

J.D. POWER AND ASSOCIATES RANKS COLDWELL BANKER HIGHEST IN HOME SELLER SATISFACTION

Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC ranked “Highest among Overall Satisfaction for Home Sellers among National Full Service Real Estate Firms” according to the recently released J.D. Power and Associates 2009 Home Buyer/Seller Study^SM.

The independently administered study measured customer satisfaction of homebuyers and sellers among the largest national real estate firms.  The study incorporates more than 3,100 evaluations from 2,801 respondents who bought or sold a home between April 2008 and June 2009. The survey was fielded between April and June 2009.

J.D. Power and Associates examined four factors in the home-selling experience including   agent; marketing; office; and package of additional services. Among home sellers, Coldwell Banker Real Estate ranked highest with a score of 815.

Complete results for the study.

When you work with Coldwell Banker Real Estate, you will be working with a brand:

• That has built a legacy of being an industry leader;
• That has a commitment to innovation;
• That has a network of experienced and extremely successful Sales Associates, ready and willing to help you through any step of your real estate buying or selling process.

Source: http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/news/releases/pressrelease.aspx?ID=2009136